An availability, affordability crisis April 2022 Update! |
As predicted 2022 has proven to be a continuation of the severely out of balance market we have been enduring with supply extremely constrained and demand still remaining at historically high levels. As I write this interest rates are hovering around 5.5% for a 30 year fixed loans, up almost 3 points from the beginning of the year. With rates rising the expectation is that prices will moderate or decline as purchasing power is diminished, that has not proven to be the case thus far. Currently all cash purchases or purchases using financing, but waiving appraisal contingencies, are still the norm. It is clear the impact of higher rates on price appreciation will not be significant in the 2022 market. Perhaps as 2023 unfolds the impacts of higher rates may start to dampen sale prices?? The following data provides some insight into why prices are currently being sustained. NH Data: In Grafton county year to date as of 5/13/22 400 residential units have sold vs. 677 for the same period in 2021, a 41% decrease year over year. Median sold price in 2021 was $275,000, in 2022 ytd it is $321,000, a 17% increase year over year. In Sullivan county year to date as of 5/13/22 164 residential units have sold vs. 224 for the same period in 2021, a 27% decrease year over year. Median sold price in 2021 was $232,000, in 2022 ytd it is $280,000, a 20% increase year over year. In Merrimack county year to date as of 5/13/22 569 residential units have sold vs. 739 for the same period in 2021, a 23% decrease year over year. Median sold price in 2021 was $315,000, in 2022 ytd it is $350,000, a 11% increase year over year. VT Data: In Windsor county year to date as of 5/13/22 296 residential units have sold vs. 493 for the same period in 2021, a 40% decrease year over year. Median sold price in 2021 was $280,000, in 2022 ytd it is $377,500, a 35% increase year over year. In Orange county year to date as of 5/13/22 72 residential units have sold vs. 111 for the same period in 2021, a 35% decrease year over year. Median sold price in 2021 was $225,000, in 2022 ytd it is $295,000, a 31% increase year over year. With prices rising year over year on a County wide basis in the Upper Valley region anywhere from a low of 11% to a high of 31% and County wide inventory falling 20-40% it is clear the market remains seriously out of balance on the supply side. This imbalance will not be corrected in 2022, the remainder of this year will be a struggle for those seeking housing at any price point. The Upper Valley region continues to build its national reputation as a phenomenal place to live, that national demand for housing in our area continues to compound the supply/demand imbalance in the housing market. If you have a house to sell please contact us, we may have a Buyer waiting for your home. If you are considering Buying a home, please consider working with us on your purchase. We are battle hardened real estate Brokers who know how to operate in a Sellers market to help you buy a home. Happy Spring, Matt & Carol |